Gravity Models, Interregional Input-Output, and Trade in Value Added: A New Approach Applied to Brazil Internal and International Trade


Ayçıl Yücer – Dokuz Eylül Üniversitesi

Jean-Marc Siroën – Université Paris-Dauphine

Joaquim José Martins Guilhoto – Universidade de São Paulo

ABSTRACT: WTO, OECD with many others, suggest the trade in value-added would be a “better” measure than gross value to understand the impact of trade on employment, growth, production etc. We use in this work a gravity model founded on the estimation of exports of Brazilian states both in traditional terms of gross value and in terms of value added, estimated from an InputOutput table for 2008. The results of the bilateral gravity model for Brazilian states’ exports show that GDP impact is fairly similar when the exports are estimated in gross or in valueadded terms. However, the coefficient for distance is smaller and less significant when its impact is estimated for exported value-added.

Keywords: Vertical Specialization, Global supply-chain, Input-Output Analysis, Brazil, Intranational trade.



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