Paulo de T. G. Paixão – Dados&Cenários
Joaquim J. M. Guilhoto – Universidade de São Paulo
Carlos R. Azzoni – Universidade de São Paulo
ABSTRACT: The present paper reports on the results of a research carried out in partnership between a Brazilian company of electricity generation and distribution, CPFL, and the Department of Economics at the University of São Paulo (FEAUSP) in Brazil. The project was financed by ANEEL, the Brazilian regulatory agency for electricity generation and distribution, and had as a result an input-output model that improves the assessment of the impacts of structural economic changes on the consumption of electricity, by taking into due account the diversities of regional development. By tailoring the supply and use tables and the results in function of the regional boundaries of the CPFL area of operation, and of its “geo-electrical sub-regions”, the identification of direct and indirect changes on electricity consumption accruing from alternative regional development scenarios was made possible, including the effects of changes outside the Company area into its electricity market. An account of the model theoretical structure, which involved the construction of supply and use tables at the municipal level, is provided. The model is already part of the market prospecting methodology of the utility company, and some practical examples of its applicability are given in the text.